Regional Weather Impacts of Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) 
events: Implications for PWV and Rainfall in African Equatorial-Low 
Latitude Region

Mukhtar Ibrahim Furfuri; Bolaji Oloriebi Segun; Abbas Mustapha; Joshua Benjamin Wisdom; Bankole Fashae; Yushau Muhammad Sulaiman

2026, Vol: 6, Issue: 1

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Research Article
Online Published: 09 Jun 2026

SJACR. 2026; 6(1): 76-87

Regional Weather Impacts of Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) events: Implications for PWV and Rainfall in African Equatorial-Low Latitude Region

Mukhtar Ibrahim Furfuri, Bolaji Oloriebi Segun, Abbas Mustapha, Joshua Benjamin Wisdom, Bankole Fashae, Yushau Muhammad Sulaiman.

Abstract
This study investigates the influence of major Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) events on
precipitable water vapor (PWV) and rainfall variability over the equatorial–low latitude region of Africa.
GNSS-derived PWV data from four stations; Djibouti (DJIG), Ambo (ABOO), Lagos (ULAG), and
Libreville (NLKG), were analyzed alongside ERA5 reanalysis rainfall data and MERRA-2 stratospheric
temperature and zonal wind fields for the 2016/2017 and 2017/2018 SSW events. PWV was retrieved
from GNSS observations using Precise Point Positioning (PPP) techniques, and the analysis was
conducted within a phase-based framework, classifying each event into ascending (AP), mature (MP),
and descending (DP) phases. Results show that SSW events exhibit clear stratospheric signatures,
including rapid temperature increases (~50–60 K) and zonal wind reversals, consistent with major
warming criteria. These disturbances are associated with a distinct tropospheric response. During the
AP, PWV is suppressed across all stations, accompanied by weak and sporadic rainfall. In the MP, both
PWV and rainfall increase significantly, with PWV reaching ~50–60 mm and rainfall peaking at ~40–
55 mm/day, indicating strong coupling between moisture availability and convective processes. During
the DP, PWV remains elevated, while rainfall becomes more variable, reflecting a lagged and weakened
coupling. Coastal stations (ULAG and NLKG) consistently exhibit higher PWV and rainfall due to
enhanced oceanic moisture supply. The results further demonstrate that while elevated PWV is a
necessary condition for rainfall, it is not sufficient, as precipitation depends on favorable dynamical and
thermodynamic conditions, including vertical motion and atmospheric instability. This study provides
new GNSS-based observational evidence of phase-dependent stratosphere and troposphere coupling in
the African sector and highlights the importance of integrating PWV observations into regional weather
forecasting and climate modeling.

Key words: Sudden Stratospheric Warming; Precipitable water vapor; Equatorial and Low Latitude; Stratosphere and Troposphere Coupling

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How to Cite this Article

Pubmed Style

Furfuri MI, Segun BO, Mustapha A, Wisdom JB, Fashae B, Sulaiman YM. Regional Weather Impacts of Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) events: Implications for PWV and Rainfall in African Equatorial-Low Latitude Region . SJACR. 2026; 6(1): 76-87.

Web Style

Furfuri MI, Segun BO, Mustapha A, Wisdom JB, Fashae B, Sulaiman YM. Regional Weather Impacts of Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) events: Implications for PWV and Rainfall in African Equatorial-Low Latitude Region . https://www.sjacrksusta.com/?mno=323800 [Access: June 09, 2026].

AMA (American Medical Association) Style

Furfuri MI, Segun BO, Mustapha A, Wisdom JB, Fashae B, Sulaiman YM. Regional Weather Impacts of Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) events: Implications for PWV and Rainfall in African Equatorial-Low Latitude Region . SJACR. 2026; 6(1): 76-87.

Vancouver/ICMJE Style

Harvard Style

Furfuri, M. I., Segun, . B. O., Mustapha, . A., Wisdom, . J. B., Fashae, . B. & Sulaiman, . Y. M. (2026) Regional Weather Impacts of Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) events: Implications for PWV and Rainfall in African Equatorial-Low Latitude Region . SJACR, 6 (1), 76-87.

Turabian Style

Furfuri, Mukhtar Ibrahim, Bolaji Oloriebi Segun, Abbas Mustapha, Joshua Benjamin Wisdom, Bankole Fashae, and Yushau Muhammad Sulaiman. 2026. Regional Weather Impacts of Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) events: Implications for PWV and Rainfall in African Equatorial-Low Latitude Region . Science Journal of Advanced and Cognitive Research, 6 (1), 76-87.

Chicago Style

Furfuri, Mukhtar Ibrahim, Bolaji Oloriebi Segun, Abbas Mustapha, Joshua Benjamin Wisdom, Bankole Fashae, and Yushau Muhammad Sulaiman. "Regional Weather Impacts of Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) events: Implications for PWV and Rainfall in African Equatorial-Low Latitude Region ." Science Journal of Advanced and Cognitive Research 6 (2026), 76-87.

MLA (The Modern Language Association) Style

APA (American Psychological Association) Style

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